tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-86465672115875384612024-02-20T07:43:47.262-08:00Colourful PoliticsPolitical commentary by Dr. Rainbow Murray, political scientist and specialist on elections, French politics and women in politics.Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-72768193809995990232013-07-06T11:02:00.001-07:002013-07-06T11:02:02.889-07:00An end to the cumul des mandats?British readers may be puzzled by the French phenomenon of <i>cumul des mandats</i>, which roughly translates as multiple office-holding. In France, building a local power-base goes hand in hand with a national parliamentary career. Local office is more powerful and more visible in France and is available at lots of different levels, including local councils (presided by mayors, who are key local figures in every city, town and village), departmental (county) councils, and regional councils, led by powerful presidents. These local offices can act as a springboard into national politics, but the connection between the two is far deeper and more entrenched than that. A local politician will see a national role as additional and complementary to a local role, rather than as the next stage of their career. Hence someone who already holds one (possibly several) local offices, including executive roles such as mayor or president of a departmental council, will be considered a strong parliamentary candidate and will likely continue to hold their local roles at the same time as being a deputy (MP). There are numerous consequences of this practice, outlined below. There have also been repeated calls to abolish the <i>cumul</i>, although the entrenched political career structures of French politicians mean that doing so would require parliamentarians to vote against their own self-interest.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So why do French politicians adopt this practice, what are the consequences, and what prospects are there for reform?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Why?</b></div>
<div>
There are numerous benefits to holding more than one office at a time. If you ask someone who does it, they will always focus on the so-called benefits to their constituents. Having a local office helps deputies to feel connected to their constituents and to stay abreast of local issues, while having a national office gives them the power to defend their constituents' interests through legislation and access to ministers. The fact that these combined roles should already be covered through the constituency work required of a parliamentarian, and the fact that the local and national constituencies are very rarely identical in composition, are among the reasons cited by the few deputies who do not hold other offices.</div>
<div>
If the democratic argument simply does not add up, the less altruistic motivations are abundantly clear. Firstly, there is a simple financial incentive; two or more jobs means two or more salaries. This benefit has been somewhat curtailed by legislation limiting an individual's total income from the different offices to 1.5 times a deputy's salary. This still allows for healthy supplementation of an already generous income, and further allows for the multiplication of other resources, such as office space, secretarial assistance, stationery and the like. Perhaps more importantly, holding a local office allows a deputy to boost their local notoriety and to become sufficiently powerful and dominant within their constituency that others are unlikely to be able to rival their power-base and present a credible challenge to them. Running for more than one office allows for additional campaign resources, greater familiarity with voters, and the prestige that comes with success. Indeed, so important is the combination of local and national office that those deputies who enter politics from above rather than below - that is to say, deputies who start out as parliamentary assistants, aides to the president, unelected ministers or the like, and who therefore obtain a parliamentary or cabinet seat before engaging in local politics, rather than starting local and building their way up to the national level - are compelled to add local office to their national profile. A national figure needs to secure a local power base and prove their electoral viability. A local figure may see local executive office, rather than parliamentary office, as the jewel in their political crown. Hence, French political careers do not proceed in a clear linear direction from local to national; the direction can also be reversed, and the two are combined rather than pursued sequentially.</div>
<div>
An additional advantage of holding local office is that it is a useful fallback in the event of a deputy losing their seat, which is a fairly common occurrence at each election, with the French re-electing the incumbent government only once since 1978 (in 2007). Evicted deputies can use their local office as a source of income to enable them to remain in politics, and as a power base upon which to stage their comeback at the next election. It is quite common for former deputies to seek re-election at the following election, and many are successful as the political tide swings back in their favour. Without this resource, it would be much harder to return to politics after losing a parliamentary seat.</div>
<div>
The final, and non-negligible, reason why politicians combine offices is that it is the expected practice. (Almost) everybody does it (<a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/07/02/la-maladie-francaise-du-cumul-des-mandats_3440255_823448.html" target="_blank">www.lemonde.fr</a>); 81% of deputies hold at least one additional office, with 58% of these being an executive role (eg mayor or president), and nearly 75% of senators also hold additional offices. Therefore those who do not are placed at a significant disadvantage. Interestingly, this latter group is more likely to be female; 45% of female deputies hold only their parliamentary office, compared to 22% of their male counterparts (<a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/04/02/le-cumul-des-mandats-une-affaire-d-hommes_3151831_823448.html" target="_blank">www.lemonde.fr</a>). This is partly due to the parity legislation, which has enabled women to enter national politics without having to break through the male-dominated closed circles of local politics; it may also be because women already have enough other demands on their time, or are more conscientious in focusing on their national roles, or it may be because ambitious men are still holding all the cards <a href="http://www.rainbowmurray.co.uk/MCF_2010b.pdf" target="_blank">(see my article on this)</a>. At any rate, the <i>cumul</i> poses a classic collective action problem; no individual can afford to stop unless everyone else stops as well.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Consequences?</b></div>
<div>
Perhaps the most obvious consequence of holding multiple offices at the same time is that politicians become over-stretched. The role of a parliamentarian is, and should be, a full-time job. Being mayor of a large municipality or president of a department or region is also a demanding full-time job. Anyone who tries to combine these roles will inevitably fail to perform either properly. Local work gets delegated to subordinates, while national work is similarly compromised. One of the most striking consequences (and causes) of the <i>cumul</i> is a weak parliament, with deputies often attending only two (at most, three) days a week - typically Tuesdays and Wednesdays, when televised questions to the government take place and when most parliamentary committees sit. Concentrating their parliamentary activity into such a short space of time results in a frantic agenda during these two days, with deputies having very limited availability for meetings. On other days of the week, parties have to force deputies to take turns attending parliament by rota in order to avoid the embarrassment of an empty chamber. Legislative debates often go on late into the night, which is hardly conducive to public scrutiny or clarity of decision-making, rather than being discussed properly throughout the week. Deputies often do not have time to attend to the detail of legislative texts. The emphasis on local roots and constituency service becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy; politicians place more emphasis on their constituency roles than on their parliamentary work, such that the former take on greater import while the latter is marginalised. Unsurprisingly, a report by Laurent Bach in 2012 revealed that the few deputies who do not combine their office with any other are far more involved, engaged and effective in their role as parliamentarians than those who divide their time between two or more positions.</div>
<div>
An additional consequence is that political renewal is stymied by the concentration of power within relatively few hands. National politicians continue to hold the local offices that might otherwise be a springboard into parliament, making it much harder for newcomers to gain a foothold. The requirement for political renewal created by gender parity legislation has suffered as a consequence; women have greatly increased their presence on local and regional councils, but have found themselves continually locked out of executive roles, which then makes it harder for them to build the profile expected of a deputy. Parties sometimes lament the shortage of suitable female parliamentary candidates, but the answer often lies in the fact that the springboard positions are tied up by male <i>cumulards</i>.</div>
<div>
Last but not least, the <i>cumul</i> can lead to conflicts of interest. Deputies are charged first and foremost with serving the national interest, and in my interviews with them, this is what they claim to do. Yet the divided loyalties created by the <i>cumul</i> create a tension that is more likely to serve the politician's electoral interests than the greater good.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Reform?</b></div>
<div>
The issue of the <i>cumul</i> is a vexed one that has emerged on many an occasion. The reasons for abolishing the <i>cumul</i> are compelling, and include strengthening parliament, ensuring that all office-holders devote themselves fully to the role to which they were elected, and diversifying the political elite. The problem is that those empowered to change the law - namely members of parliament - are the very same people who benefit from the status quo. My interviews with deputies reveal that, at least on the record, many deputies actually support the status quo ideologically as well, convinced that local and national roles are complementary rather than competing. Thus, previous attempts at reform, introduced by the Socialists in 1985 and 2000, have only managed to tame the beast rather than to conquer it. At present, deputies may only hold one additional local office at regional, departmental or city level. Villages of fewer than 3500 inhabitants are excluded, presumably due to the lack of power, resources, demands and hence candidates for these roles. Politicians are also prevented from combining two major local executive roles. However, these rules have not prevented deputies from combining parliamentary office with local executive power.</div>
<div>
New legislation may now change that. Deputies voted in favour of the crucial first sections of a new bill designed to curtail multiple office holding by preventing parliamentarians from combining their role with local executive office, such as being a mayor or president of a departmental or regional council. (In an amusing irony, the vote - which took place on a Thursday, when attendance in parliament is low - was 59 for and 35 against, ie 94 votes cast in an assembly comprising 577 members.) The bill still has to survive further readings and passage through the Senate, but it stems from a manifesto pledge by the governing party, which has a majority in both chambers of parliament. The delayed implementation date of 2017 will also help to sweeten the bitter pill, as it will allow deputies to contest the next election with their local offices intact before the legislation comes into effect. Nonetheless, the proposals have met with some opposition within the Socialist party, with some diehard <i>cumulards</i> feeling that supporting the legislation is rather like turkeys voting for Christmas.</div>
<div>
If the legislation does survive intact, it will still allow parliamentarians to combine their roles with non-executive local roles, although the reduced power and benefits of these roles will help to tame some of the worst consequences of the <i>cumul</i>. However, power is rarely given up without a struggle. The power dynamics of local and national politics will have to adjust once it is forbidden for a small group of players to hold all the cards, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a reconfiguration of the loci of power such that the current elite are able to preserve at least some of their advantage. Whether this will lead to a strengthened parliament that becomes the summit of a political career, or an increased weakening of parliament as some of its key players decide to resign their national rather than local offices, remains to be seen. For the former to be achieved, further reform of parliament as an institution may be necessary.</div>
Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-43058378364133213182012-06-28T02:42:00.004-07:002012-07-05T03:46:59.006-07:00Déjà vu? Gendered membership of French parliamentary committees is a familiar story<br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
The new French
parliament has a record number of women deputies, with more than 26% women
(compared to 18.5% prior to the election on 17 June 2012). Has this new feminisation precipitated an end
to the traditionally gendered composition of parliamentary committees? Alas, the answer appears to be no.<br />
<a name='more'></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
The French parliament
has eight permanent committees of approximately equal size, with deputies each
assigned to one committee. Some
committees are decidedly more prestigious and coveted than others. For example, finance committee is considered
the apogee of power; defence committee has the lowest workload, and is
therefore favoured by deputies seeking higher profile in other roles; and
foreign affairs committee also carries prestige. The constitutional affairs committee is
second to finance in its power and influence.
Meanwhile, social affairs has a wide remit, making it appealing to people
with a range of interests, but it is also renowned for a heavy workload. Cultural and educational affairs tends to be
the most lowly of the eight committees.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
It is disappointing, if
not surprising, to learn that the more prestigious and powerful committees are
also the more male-dominated, with women traditionally concentrated into the
committees on social and cultural affairs.
I am currently working on an article that seeks to explain this
phenomenon for the previous parliament.
My findings reveal that the myth that the finance committee is reserved
for long-serving deputies is false. This
was true to some extent for the foreign affairs committee, but not for any of
the others. Therefore this traditional
excuse for the male-domination of this committee does not hold. First-time deputies are more likely to be
found in the cultural affairs and sustainable development committees, whereas
social affairs is not a “dumping ground” for new deputies; membership appears
to reflect a genuine interest in the committee’s work (a finding confirmed by
interviews with deputies). While
experience was more important than sex in explaining the over-representation of
men on the foreign affairs committee, it could not explain away the sex gap on
the other committees, and neither could other control variables such as prior
professional experience or constituency effects. It appears that at least some of the blame
lies with gender stereotyping when allocating committee portfolios.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Fast forward to 2012,
and the results look depressingly familiar, as illustrated in the table
below. This table only includes the
previous and current parliaments, but my data for the two preceding parliaments
(1997-2002, 2002-7) tells much the same story:</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 100.0%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td rowspan="2" style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 16.56%;" width="16%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Committee<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td colspan="3" style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 41.76%;" width="41%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2011*<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td colspan="3" style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 41.66%;" width="41%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2012<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Men<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Women<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">% women<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Men<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Women<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.84%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">% women<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 16.56%;" width="16%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Defence<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">63<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">11.3%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">58<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">11<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.84%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">15.9%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 16.56%;" width="16%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Finance<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">63<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">12.5%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">61<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">12<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.84%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">16.4%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 16.56%;" width="16%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Constitutional affairs<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">62<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">11.4%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">56<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">17<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.84%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">23.3%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 16.56%;" width="16%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Foreign affairs<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">64<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">10<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">13.5%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">57<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">15<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.84%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">20.8%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 16.56%;" width="16%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Sustainable development<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">59<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">10<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">14.5%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">58<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">14<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.84%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">19.4%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 16.56%;" width="16%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Economic affairs<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">58<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">14<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">19.4%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">58<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">14<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.84%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">19.4%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 16.56%;" width="16%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Social affairs<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">49<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">22<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">31.0%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">42<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">31<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.84%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">42.5%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 16.56%;" width="16%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Cultural affairs<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">48<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">28<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">36.8%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">38<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.92%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">33<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 13.84%;" width="13%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">46.5%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
* Until 2009, there were six committees, so the
data for 2011 is a better comparator than the data for 2007. However, there was a significant feminisation
of the finance and foreign affairs committees between 2007 and 2011, as women
transferred out of their originally assigned committees and into more
prestigious ones, so the figures for 2007 were even more gendered.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
As we can see, defence
and finance remain stubbornly male-dominated.
Although the proportion of women has increased in both these committees,
it has done so at a slower rate than the proportional increase in women within
parliament as a whole. Constitutional
affairs and foreign affairs have seen bigger increases, but they continue to
have below average levels of women.
Sustainable development has been slow to feminise and the proportion of
women in economic affairs has stagnated, despite the 50% rise in women within
parliament. Meanwhile, the proportion of
women in social and cultural affairs remains excessive, with the latter
approaching parity, despite women being fewer than 27% of deputies
overall. Overall, it appears that while
there may be more women in parliament, when it comes to committee assignments, <i>plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose</i>
(the more things change, the more they stay the same).</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
<span style="background-color: white;">There is one cause for celebration, however. The powerful role of
committee president has been shared relatively equitably, with women being
elected to the chair of three committees. Elisabeth Guigou, former
Justice minister and defeated candidate to be the president (Speaker) of
parliament, receives the consolation prize of presiding over the foreign
affairs committee. Patricia Adam, former vice-president of the defence
committee, now becomes its president. Similarly, Catherine Lemorton, former
vice-president of the social affairs committee, now moves into the top job.
The full executives of each committee (including vice-presidents and
secretaries) are detailed in the table below.
While women still remain under-represented within these positions of
power, the gender gap is not as stark as in previous years. There are no longer any committees with an
all-male executive, and for the first time, one committee (cultural and
educational affairs) has a majority of women at the helm. While women are more likely to wield
influence in the “soft” committees, we can at least take some solace in the
fact that they are rising to positions of prominence.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 100.0%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td rowspan="2" style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 15.82%;" width="15%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Committee<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td colspan="4" style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.52%;" width="39%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2011*<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td colspan="4" style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 44.64%;" width="44%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2012<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">President<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">VPs<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Secretaries<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.24%;" width="9%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Total<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">President<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">VPs<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Secretaries<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 14.36%;" width="14%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Total<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 15.82%;" width="15%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Defence<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">M<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">0/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.24%;" width="9%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">F<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">0/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 14.36%;" width="14%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2/9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 15.82%;" width="15%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Finance<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">M<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">0/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">0/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.24%;" width="9%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">0/10<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">M<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">0/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 14.36%;" width="14%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2/10<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 15.82%;" width="15%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Constitutional affairs<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">M<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">0/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">0/3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.24%;" width="9%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">0/8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">M<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 14.36%;" width="14%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2/9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 15.82%;" width="15%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Foreign affairs<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">M<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">0/3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.24%;" width="9%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">F<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 14.36%;" width="14%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">3/9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 15.82%;" width="15%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Sustainable development<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">M<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.24%;" width="9%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2/6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">M<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">0/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 14.36%;" width="14%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 15.82%;" width="15%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Economic affairs<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">M<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.24%;" width="9%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2/8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">M<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 14.36%;" width="14%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">3/9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 15.82%;" width="15%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">Social affairs<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">M<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 9.24%;" width="9%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2/9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 11.2%;" width="11%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">F<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 6.3%;" width="6%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">1/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 12.78%;" width="12%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">2/4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 14.36%;" width="14%"><div align="center" class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt;">4/9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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</div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-47655917070126387422012-06-18T00:32:00.004-07:002012-07-05T03:47:29.857-07:00Record number of women elected to French Parliament France has just elected a record number of women to its parliament. The number of women deputies now stands at 155, or 26.9%. This is a dramatic improvement from the previous record of 107, or 18.5%, women elected in 2007. However, it is still a far cry from parity and is slightly below my original forecast.<br />
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France has a poor track record for electing women, and has had a gender parity law in place since 2000 to boost women's representation in parliament. This law has been ineffective due to weak sanctions for non-implementation and the ability of parties to circumvent the law by fielding women in unwinnable seats. Parties of the right have been particularly guilty of disregarding parity. The victory of the left in 2012, combined with harsher financial penalties for non-implementation, help explain the rise this time around.<br />
France's final score will change slightly once members of the government are replaced by their substitute deputies, or <i>suppléants</i>. Of eleven women deputies nominated to the government, nine have male <i>suppléants</i>, and only 7/12 male ministers will be replaced with female <i>suppléantes</i>, resulting in a net loss of two women. The revised figure of 153 women, or 26.5%, lifts France from 84th to 38th place in international league tables for women's representation (the UK is ranked 61st). This is the first time that France has had more women in its parliament than the UK, which now compares unfavourably with 22.5% women in parliament.<br />
There was a clear partisan divide in the proportions of women elected. The Socialists (PS) came close to (but did not achieve) their target of 40% women elected, with a final tally of 36.8%. This figure was not helped by cases such as that of Ségolène Royal, where the PS selected a female candidate who was then beaten by a male dissident candidate from the same party. Other left wing parties also fared quite well, with the Greens achieving perfect parity, although the Front de Gauche (formerly the Communist Party) only managed 20%. On the right, the picture is far less impressive. The UMP elected a paltry 13.6% women, and the New Centre party yet again failed to count a single woman amongst its ranks. Overall, the proportion of women elected on the left was 36.5%, and on the right (excluding the far-right) was just 12.5%. This very poor performance on the right is the main reason why the total proportion of women is not higher. This is explained in part by the high proportion of the UMP's outgoing female MPs who were elected in marginal constituencies that easily capitulated to the left when the electoral tide turned.<br />
There are also some regional disparities. Finistère maintained it good track record as a gender-equal department, while 27 out of 106 departments did not elect a single woman deputy. (Conversely, there are no departments represented exclusively by women.)<br />
In addition to the rise in the proportion of women, this election has also seen a historic rise in the number of ethnic minority deputies elected. France has a lamentable track record in this regard; with the exception of France's overseas territories, France had no non-white deputies until 2007, when George Pau-Langevin (of Guadeloupean origin) was elected in Paris. This time around, she is joined by six more non-white deputies, including Seybah Dagoma, another black female deputy in Paris; Kheira Bouziane and Chaynesse Khirouni, also female; Kader Arif, a member of the new government; Razzy Hamadi; and Malek Boutih. All are Socialists. This is an important and highly symbolic outcome for a country with entrenched (though seldom acknowledged) racial divides.<br />
How did my <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/06/16/french-elections-parity/" target="_blank">forecasts</a> fare? I forecast the number of women elected based on two models, one using the results of the presidential elections, one based on the first round of the parliamentary elections. The presidential results slightly over-estimated the number of women elected (at nearly 30%). This is likely due to the electoral strength of some male incumbents on the right, who managed to retain their seats despite a swing to the left in the presidential election. The results were also somewhat perturbed by anomalies such as three-ways in the second round. The first-round results provided a more sensitive and accurate forecast, with the forecast proving accurate to within four seats in the 507 seats where a prediction was made (the seats that were forecast incorrectly all proved to be very close calls, with one resulting in the victory of a far-right candidate). In the 70 remaining marginal seats, women obtained fewer than half the seats - a total of 28. As a result, the total number of women elected was higher than the 25% stemming from the non-marginal seats, but fewer than the possible 28% if the marginals had split evenly between men and women. These figures reflect the fact that women are more frequently found in marginal seats, as this is where most new opportunities emerge. However, as women on the right have demonstrated, the excessive placement of women in marginal districts leaves them vulnerable to future electoral swings.<br />
Overall, this is a historic day for women in French politics, and the UK should take note as it now lags behind its neighbour. However, the battle for parity is far from won in France, and a future right-wing victory might even see the proportion of women go back down.Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-5308838440286664072012-06-16T04:10:00.004-07:002012-06-16T04:10:55.943-07:00Parity in the French parliament?Will Sunday's elections result in parity in the French parliament? See my discussion and forecasts of the outcome in my post on the LSE Europe blog: <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/06/16/french-elections-parity/">http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/06/16/french-elections-parity/</a>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-65660351375636211452012-06-11T01:14:00.001-07:002012-07-05T03:47:54.775-07:00Royal in the headlines again Ségolène Royal is back in the headlines. The Socialist presidential candidate in 2007, Royal did not contest a parliamentary seat as it would have looked like she did not expect to win the presidency if she had a plan B lined up. After losing to Nicolas Sarkozy, she focused her efforts on being president of her region and staging her comeback.<br />
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In 2011, after losing the primary to be the PS presidential candidate in 2012 (to François Hollande), she set her new ambition on being the president of Parliament. She was parachuted into a safe PS seat where the incumbent was standing down. However, another candidate, Olivier Falorni, had set his sights on this seat and refused to make way for Royal. The PS declared the seat a reserved seat for women - their equivalent to all-women shortlists and their means of achieving a big boost in women's representation. The aim here was to force out Falorni and allow Royal to claim the seat for herself. However, Falorni still refused to stand down, and after Royal was declared the official PS candidate, Falorni stood as a dissident candidate.<br />
Prior to the first round of voting on Sunday, Royal was forecast to get 36%, with Falorni getting 22% and the UMP candidate also expected to qualify to the second round. However, the result was much tighter than expected. Some UMP voters transferred their support to Falorni as a means of attacking Royal, resulting in a close finish - 32% to Royal, 29% to Falorni - and the UMP candidate did not qualify to the second round. So we will now witness a second round that pitches the two Socialists head to head, with no guarantee that Royal will win. Some supporters of Falorni see him as a symbol of resistance against imposition of a candidate by the national party over the will of the local party organisation. Members resent having a candidate parachuted into the constituency, and Royal is widely perceived to be using the constituency as a springboard into the role of President of the National Assembly. Royal has also been attacked endlessly by the UMP, who are using Hollande's support for Royal to criticise the president for getting involved personally in the election, rather than rising above the fray as he had said he would do. As well as using Royal to attack the president, the UMP are also making the most of the opportunity to heap scorn upon the one-time opponent of Nicolas Sarkozy. At a time when the UMP has little to boast about, it can at least enjoy a little schadenfreude. So too can Valérie Trierweiler, France's "first lady" and partner of François Hollande, who has made a rare venture onto Twitter in support of Olivier Falorni. Her public backing of Falorni is personal; Trierweiler got together with Hollande at the same time that his relationship with Royal fell apart. Hollande and Royal had been together for nearly thirty years and have four children together. There remains much bitterness and acrimony between Hollande's former and current partners, and Trierweiler surely does not appreciate Hollande's public backing of Royal. There has been a thaw, at least publicly, in the relations between Royal and Hollande; she was far more publicly supportive of his presidential bid than Hollande had been of Royal's presidential campaign in 2007). The whole saga, with Trierweiler publicly contradicting Hollande in order to spite Royal, has led one Elysée official to say "I expected the crises to be governmental, not marital".<br />
However, Royal does enjoy the support of many within the local party, including the outgoing incumbent, Maxime Bono, who is retiring at this election. It is also possible that she might be offered a place in a reshuffled government at some point, in the event that here ambitions with parliament are thwarted.Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-17953866922234357782012-06-10T15:14:00.001-07:002012-07-05T03:48:09.188-07:00Voting à la françaiseI am in Paris for the first round of the legislative elections. A friend of mine was the returning officer for a local polling station and invited me to come along and observe the vote and the count. I'm glad I accepted; it was a fascinating experience. While some aspects were very familiar, it seems that the French do things quite differently to the British.<br />
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<b>Ballot papers</b><br />
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In the UK, you receive one ballot paper with the names of all the candidates, in alphabetical order by surname. You put a cross against your preferred candidate. This is not what happens in France. Instead, each candidate has a separate ballot paper. The candidates print these themselves. They cannot be on coloured paper (although coloured ink is ok), and there are rules about the wording. Some candidates include a description of themselves (eg "incumbent"; "nurse"; "deputy-mayor"); some do not. The name of the reserve candidate (<i>suppléant) </i>must also be included. If candidates do not provide any or enough ballot papers, voters can write the appropriate details onto a blank ballot paper and use that to cast their vote, ensuring that certain electoral regulations are followed to make the paper valid (such as including the full names of the candidate and suppléant). As you can imagine, this all results in a huge amount of wastage, as well as a possible advantage for candidates with beautifully printed colourful ballot papers versus those who didn't print anything.</div>
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<b>Voting</b></div>
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Voting takes place in voting booths within polling stations, much like in the UK. Polling stations are in public buildings such as schools. Voters are supposed to take one ballot paper for each candidate. In this constituency, there were seventeen candidates so they decided simply to require that voters take papers for at least two candidates, to ensure some element of a secret ballot. To cast a vote, the voter must place the ballot paper for their preferred candidate inside an envelope. Placing more than one ballot paper spoils their vote, and leaving the envelope empty counts as a blank vote. They then place the sealed envelope in the ballot box.</div>
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<b>The count</b></div>
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Once the poll has closed, the ballot box is emptied. The number of envelopes is verified and the envelopes are then distributed to the counters, who are seated in groups of four. Anyone who is eligible to vote may also take part in the count; they declare their wish to do so when they cast their vote. In the UK, the count is undertaken by paid officials, whereas in France they are all volunteers. Amazingly, more than 20 people turned up to count the ballots in this ward, which represented some 1700 registered voters. Apparently this is quite normal. I was most impressed with people's sense of civic duty. They were reminded that tampering with the results would entail a five-year prison sentence and a fine, and their work in teams made it harder for any individual to commit electoral fraud. The envelopes were emptied one by one, the result noted on score sheets by two different people (to ensure accuracy), and the ballot papers placed in piles. Once all the envelopes were counted, each table of four people worked out their final tally. These were then collated to produce an overall tally for the polling station.</div>
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<b>Declaring the results</b></div>
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The final tally was communicated to the local mairie (town hall and mayor's office) over the phone. Everyone in the room fell silent, so the phone call doubled up as the declaration of results within the room. The mairie will then communicate the cumulative vote for the whole constituency to the interior ministry.</div>
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All the ballot papers - both those which were used for voting and those which were not used - were then discarded. Brand new ballot papers will be issued for the second round of voting. For spoiled or blank votes, there were 17 different categories indicating why the vote was invalid, and the envelopes for these votes had to be marked with the appropriate category and signed by the group of counters. Only these envelopes, along with the score sheets, are sent on for official validation.</div>
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The whole process took about 75 minutes - remarkably quick, thanks to the large number of people taking part.</div>
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Overall, I am not convinced that individual ballot papers produced by candidates are efficient or fair. Wealthier candidates have a clear advantage. To maintain perfect secrecy, voters must take one of every ballot paper in with them (17 in this case), only to discard all but one, resulting in possible confusion and a lot of wastage. Otherwise, the secrecy of the ballot is somewhat compromised. On the plus side, however, the count was open, transparent, rapid and effective. All voters could get involved and an impressive number chose to do so. In this respect, we could certainly learn from the French example. Yes, London mayoral elections, I'm looking at you.</div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-60388331614252358042012-05-16T14:10:00.002-07:002012-08-31T18:05:02.273-07:00France gets a parity government – but it’s not a revolution<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
During the election
campaign, François Hollande promised that he would install a parity government,
although he added “which is not to say that [women] will have the same
responsibilities”. How true this turned
out to be. He honoured his promise of a
parity government, with 50% (9/18) of the members of cabinet being women, and
50% (17/34) of the government being women after all other members were
added. That’s a first for France, and
for this reason alone, this is a landmark event for women in French politics
that is worthy of celebration. He also
honoured his promise to reinstate a women’s ministry, with its newly appointed
minister, Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, holding a cabinet portfolio. However, women should not be popping the
champagne corks just yet.<br />
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Why not? The answer lies in the rather meagre status
accorded to women in the government, compared to men. The top job – that of Prime Minister – was sought
after by many people, but one of the most credible contenders was Martine
Aubry. As leader of the party, an
experienced former minister, the narrow loser in the presidential primary race,
the most popular candidate (by a significant margin) in opinion polls, and
someone who could rally support from the sections of the party that are not in
Hollande’s camp, she would have made a formidable ally. However, Hollande overlooked her in favour of
Jean-Marc Ayrault, a much less well-known loyalist who could be relied upon to
offer faithful support to the president without risk of upstaging him. Having been snubbed for the top job, Aubry
decided that she did not wish to play second fiddle yet again, with the
consequence that she is not in the government at all. Her political future now looks uncertain;
even if she remains as party leader, this position is much less powerful at a
time when her party holds the presidency and the government. She has said that she will not seek
re-election in October; but as she is not a candidate in the legislative
elections, she risks going from being the most senior woman in the party to
being just a local politician (mayor of Lille).
Sidelining her instead of giving her a prominent post was an unfortunate
result for Hollande, for women and thus for France.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Nor is Ségolène Royal
in the government, although she has long been tipped to become the next
president of the French parliament – the equivalent of the Speaker. Such a position will depend, of course, on a
Socialist victory in the forthcoming legislative elections in June.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
Without
Aubry or Royal, it was left to the big boys in the party to fight it out for
the top jobs. All the rumours prior to
the announcement of the government focused on male contenders. In the end, men got almost a clean sweep of the
top posts. Of the most prestigious and
coveted posts, all but one went to men, including the ministries of the
Interior, Finance, Foreign Affairs, Defence, Work and Employment, and
Industry. Men also picked up portfolios
in Education, Agriculture and Overseas Relations. The only remaining top job – that of Justice –
went to Christiane Taubira. She is a
deputy from the overseas territory of French Guyana, and stood as a candidate
in the 2002 presidential election for the Radical Left Party (Parti Radical du
Gauche). She is widely considered to be
a surprise choice for this position, as she has not held a high profile in
recent years and was not a key figure in the presidential campaign. However, the practice of selecting less
prominent women for key posts is very well-established. The “fait du prince”, whereby the male
president “gifts” a government post to a less powerful woman, is a way for the
president to look progressive while ensuring that his female protégée cannot
become too powerful and challenge his authority. While Taubira is hardly powerless, she is
less of a political heavyweight and has less autonomy than someone like Aubry,
and is more in keeping with previous appointments of female outsiders.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
As
for the other women, what did they get?
The picture is rather disappointing.
Women got nearly all the stereotypically “feminine” portfolios that are
less prominent and prestigious, including (in the Cabinet) Social Affairs &
Health, Culture & Communication, Higher Education, the Environment,
Decentralisation, Women’s Ministry, Housing and the Regions, and Sport &
Youth. This very gendered distribution
of government portfolios mirrors the sharp gender divide in parliamentary
committees, where women are heavily over-represented on the committees for
Social Affairs (including health) and Cultural Affairs (including education),
and almost absent from the committees on Finance, Foreign Affairs and
Defence. It would seem that place can be
made for women only if women remember their place – in the “social” portfolios.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
In
the wider government, a similar picture emerges. Men got Budget, European Affairs, Cities,
Parliamentary Relations, Economic Solidarity, Transport, Development, and Veterans. Women got junior posts in the ministries of
Education and Justice, along with Senior Citizens, Family, Disabled People, and
the less gendered posts of Commerce, Innovation and Expatriates. Giving all the caring roles to women seems
nothing short of a cliché. The women
holding these posts include Marisol Touraine (Social Affairs), a two-term deputy
whom I interviewed last year as part of my ongoing study of gender in the
French parliament and who has worked for a long time on social affairs;
Marylise Lebranchu (Decentralisation), one of the most senior figures in the previous
Socialist government (1997-2002) and the first woman to hold the position of
Justice Minister (which has since also been held by Rachida Dati); Cécile
Duflot (Housing and the Regions), the outgoing leader of the Green party but
still a relatively young up-and-comer; Nicole Bricq (Environment), a relatively
low-profile Senator who cut her teeth in the male-dominated Senate finance committee; Aurélie Filipetti Culture), who first cut her teeth in the
campaign for Ségolène Royal in 2007 and, like Duflot, is still in her 30s; Najat
Vallaud-Belkacem (Women), even younger at 34 and with limited political
experience, though she symbolises diversity given her Moroccan heritage; Geneviève
Fioraso (Higher Education), 57 years old, a one-term MP and also rather low
profile; and Valérie Fourneyron (Sport and Youth), MP, mayor of Rouen and
doctor specialising in sport who seems very well qualified for her portfolio.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
It
should be borne in mind that only four of the 34 new members of government have
prior government experience, including Marylise Lebranchu. Even Hollande and Ayrault, the president and
prime minister, have no prior ministerial experience. The Socialists’ re-entry into power after a
long period of exile affords an opportunity for more junior people to emerge,
as was the case in the UK with New Labour in 1997. The fact that some of the new women ministers
are relatively inexperienced is therefore not a handicap, making this the ideal
time for women to enter the government in large numbers.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
So
how does the new government compare to its predecessors? It has more women than ever before. Sarkozy also promised a parity government,
but did not really deliver. However,
with 7 women out of 15 members of cabinet, and women comprising a third of the
government overall, his first government did better than any of its
predecessors. The Jospin government
(1997-2002) and the first Fillon government (under Sarkozy) also boasted a
number of women in key positions, including, at various times, Justice,
Finance, Foreign Affairs and Defence.
However, the number and profile of women declined in successive
governments under Fillon. The boost of
women today is therefore to be welcomed, but it is regrettable that the
portfolios accorded to women are less high profile and prestigious than those
seen in previous governments, with old-fashioned stereotypes re-emerging. Two steps forward, one step back. It can only be hoped that some of the younger
women who have been given their big break within this government will go on to
become the key players of the future – with one of them potentially becoming
France’s first female president.</div>
Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-43081736452376160032012-05-06T11:49:00.001-07:002012-07-05T03:48:56.362-07:00Hollande wins the French presidency - what next?<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Once the Socialists have
finished fêting their first presidential victory since Mitterrand’s re-election
in 1988, the big questions will need to be asked. What will be the repercussions of Hollande’s
victory for the future of France? Here,
I address five key themes: the contrast
between the outgoing and incoming French leaders; the key figures in Hollande’s
presidency; the key domestic and foreign policy implications of a Socialist
victory; the implications for the forthcoming legislative elections; and the
repercussions for Sarkozy’s UMP party.<br />
<a name='more'></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
In terms of
presidential style, Hollande is quite the contrast to Sarkozy. Whereas Sarkozy celebrated his victory in
2007 by dining in one of Paris’s most exclusive restaurants and then partying
on a yacht for several days (earning him a reputation for vulgarity and being
the “President of the rich” that still caused him headaches in 2012 and was a
factor in his defeat), Hollande will be eager to show a more modest, “normal”
reaction. While Socialists might pop a
few champagne corks, Hollande has already indicated that he intends to start
work from the very outset, with a phonecall to Angela Merkel planned the same
night as the result is declared.
Henceforth, we can expect Hollande to be calm, conciliatory, focused on
the job, and eager to avoid the flashy displays that came to haunt his
predecessor.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
One aspect of his
private life that is likely to garner continued interest is his partner,
Valerie Trierweiler. Will he marry
her? I expect not. Whereas once this might have raised a few
eyebrows, cohabitation (of the non-political kind) is now very commonplace in
France, and reflects Hollande’s persona as a modern president, one of the
people. Foreign dignitaries may feel
less pleased at entertaining a First Lady who is not the spouse of the
president (as we witnessed in the brief period when Carla Bruni was merely
Sarkozy’s companion), but Trierweiler may well eschew such a role anyway. She has indicated her desire to continue working as a journalist. Formerly a political journalist for Paris Match, she has switched to the Arts beat to avoid a perceived conflict of interest, but her chosen profession is still likely to sit uneasily with her unofficial role as the partner of the president.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Aside Trierweiler, the
more interesting political companion for Hollande will be his choice of Prime
Minister. Martine Aubry, Socialist party
leader, has indicated that she will not take the job if offered. A more likely candidate whose name has been
doing the rounds is Jean-Marc Ayrault.
He is a loyalist rather than an “elephant” (ie a Socialist party
heavyweight), and this is what Hollande needs.
No president likes to be upstaged by the prime minister, and needs
someone who is willing to comply with the president’s vision.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
It will be interesting to see how Hollande forms
his first cabinet. Those who have played
a prominent role in the campaign are most likely to be rewarded. Whether he will bring in players from other
parties will depend in part on negotiations surrounding the legislative
elections. One likely appointment is his
former partner and defeated 2007 candidate, Ségolène Royale, to the position of
Speaker (president) in parliament. She
has been publicly supportive of his campaign, with the bitterness of their
separation now well and truly buried (at least in public), and she is likely to
be an important ally in the years ahead.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Moving onto policy
repercussions, Hollande’s room for manoeuvre will obviously be linked to the
outcome of the legislative elections in June (more on that below). His economic policies are predicated on a
push for growth rather than austerity, with promises to raise taxes for the
rich and invest in more teachers to revive France’s ailing school system. France has a comparatively high level of
state spending and growth forecasts are currently considered to be optimistic,
so Hollande’s hopes to balance tax and spend measures with deficit reduction
appear somewhat naïve. He has also
threatened to force European partners to renegotiate austerity plans, with more
emphasis on growth at the European as well as domestic level. It was no secret that Merkel had supported
Sarkozy’s re-election campaign, and both she and David Cameron will need to
find ways to work collaboratively with a leader from the other side of the
political fence. However, diplomacy
dictates that all leaders will find a way to work together, and sometimes
surprisingly strong collaborations can be forged across party lines (witness
Blair and Bush).</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
The legislative
elections will be the first big test of Hollande’s presidency. The UMP has been more popular than Sarkozy,
so it is not inconceivable that they will make something of a comeback in June,
especially given the surprisingly narrow defeat of Sarkozy against all the odds. It is also unlikely that the Socialists can
obtain a parliamentary majority by themselves, and will depend on the support
of other left-wing and green parties in order to command a working majority in
parliament (as has always been the case).
The last “plural left” coalition, from 1997-2002, became increasingly
fragile towards the end and finished in acrimony. Ten years out of power will have encouraged
the various partners to find new ways of working together.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
If the left does win –
and they will certainly do much better than in 2007 – we can expect a
significant rise in the number of women in the National Assembly. I anticipate that the total number of women
deputies will exceed the 30% mark, compared to the current level of 18.5%. We can also hope to see more women in high
profile positions within the government.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
One of the factors
complicating the legislative elections will be the reinforced Front
National. They traditionally do less
well in parliamentary elections than in the presidential race, not least due to
the less favourable electoral system.
But if they manage to qualify to the second round in a large number of
seats, they could be a real nuisance for the UMP. Will the UMP be tempted to make an electoral pact
with the FN to avoid too many “triangulaires” where the right-wing and
far-right candidates cancel each other out and result in a victory for the
left? The UMP have previously ruled out
an alliance with the FN, but following the fall of Sarkozy, they are working
from a clean slate. If they abandon the
cordon sanitaire and sign a devil’s pact, this might invite a rupture within
the party between those willing to make a permanent shift to the right, and
those who cannot stomach the FN. If they
do not form an alliance, their electoral prospects may be damaged. Despite their nuisance factor, the FN are not
likely to make significant gains in the National Assembly (where they have not
had any deputies for some time), but it is possible that Marine le Pen might
win in her constituency.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Finally, what prospects
for the UMP? Sarkozy has confirmed his
exit from political life, leaving a leadership vacuum that was widely
anticipated. The campaign for his
succession began long before the campaign for the presidency ended. Frontrunners are Jean-François Copé (outgoing
president of the UMP within the French parliament), and François Fillon
(outgoing prime minister). Other key
figures have already started lining themselves up in one of the two camps. Their biggest challenge will be to find a
unity figure who can steer the party through the legislative elections, and
avoid the bloodbath of a leadership contest until after the elections.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
One thing is clear:
this is a decisive moment in French politics.
Change really is on the horizon.
The next few weeks shall be very interesting indeed.</div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-34442569140292067072012-04-23T14:15:00.002-07:002012-07-05T03:49:27.351-07:00The first round is over – now what?<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
A historic score for a
far-right candidate and an incumbent president left battling for political
survival – the first round of the French presidential elections was anything
but dull. Here I analyse the first-round
results and look forward to how the second round is shaping up.<br />
<a name='more'></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
The first round
contained a few headlines. Turnout was
higher than expected. François Hollande
came first, pushing Nicolas Sarkozy into a humiliating second place (although
with a smaller margin between them than exit polls originally predicted). Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left candidate,
saw a decline in vote share relative to the scores he has recently obtained in
the polls, with a final score of 11.1%. François Bayrou obtained a
disappointing score of 9.13% - half the score he obtained five years ago, and
not enough for him to repeat his role as “third man” and kingmaker. Eva Joly, the Green candidate, obtained a
face-saving 2.31% - not a great result, but enough to give her something to
work with in negotiations for possible government posts and parliamentary
seats. However, the real headline that
grabbed all the attention was the very high score for Marine le Pen. Although she did not quite achieve the 20%
originally announced at the close of polls, she still obtained a record score
for the Front National of 17.9%. This
result was significantly better than the polls had predicted (although less
than a point above the long-range forecast of political scientists Jocelyn
Evans and Gilles Ivaldi: <a href="http://www.palgrave-journals.com/fp/journal/v10/n1/pdf/fp201121a.pdf">http://www.palgrave-journals.com/fp/journal/v10/n1/pdf/fp201121a.pdf</a>). So how good a result is this, and why did the
FN do well?</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Marine le Pen did not
repeat the success of her father in 2002 by qualifying to the second round,
although her score was higher than his in 2002.
The reason he did so well with a lower score was due to a fractured
left-wing vote plus high levels of abstention, resulting in an exceptionally
low score for the Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin. This time, turnout was much higher and there
were fewer candidates (10 rather than 16), resulting in greater concentration
of votes around the top candidates. One
of the 16 candidates in 2002 was a second far-right candidate; his score,
combined with that of Jean-Marie le Pen, provided a total far-right score
higher than the one witnessed in 2012.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Despite these caveats,
Marine le Pen will be pleased with her status as the “troisième homme” of the
election (it is telling that no-one has sought to feminise this term). She turned around a party that had been seen
in decline after a disappointing performance in 2007, with barely 10% of the
vote. Why did she do so well? There are five main explanations. Firstly, she was helped by the economic crisis and its particular
consequences for the Eurozone. People are more likely to vote for the FN
when unemployment is high, and disaffection with the Euro will have made le
Pen's anti-European discourse more appealing. Secondly, there was a real lack of enthusiasm for the mainstream
candidates. Sarkozy is deeply unpopular, and Hollande is viewed as bland
and uninspiring. Le Pen captured the votes of those who wished to reject
Sarkozy without supporting Hollande.
Thirdly, the Toulouse shootings
helped put the FN's favourite campaign themes - fear, immigration, law and
order, security - high on the agenda.
This was reinforced by the fourth factor, namely Sarkozy's shift to the right, which also helped to keep the FN's
preferred issues on the agenda.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Finally, we should not underestimate the impact of having a younger
woman as leader of the party. Marine le Pen helped to
"de-demonise" the party and give it a more acceptable image.
This appears to have been particularly effective with women voters.
Marine le Pen got similar scores from men in 2012 to her father in 2002.
But her scores among women were 3 percentage points higher than in 2002,
thereby tapping an electorate that traditionally does not support the
far-right. Although women were still less likely than men to support the
FN, having a woman leader of the party helped to narrow the gender gap
considerably and bolster the party’s support with a new wave of voters.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Given le Pen’s success, her electorate will now be of crucial importance
as the two remaining candidates move forward into the second round. This is where the battle really begins. Two topics currently dominate the discussion:
debates and transfers. Sarkozy expects
to perform better than Hollande in the head-to-head debates, and has challenged
Hollande to three debates (Hollande has declined, presumably because he also
expects Sarkozy to perform better than him).
Evidence from previous elections suggests that debates have only a
marginal impact on voter preference and have never succeeded in reversing the
candidates’ position in the polls, but with Sarkozy facing a yawning gap in the
second round, anything to garner a few extra votes has to be worth a try. The other way to gain new votes is to
persuade the supporters of other candidates in the first round to transfer
their support to one of the remaining candidates in the second round.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Joly has offered her clear, unequivocal support for Hollande in the
second round – as well she might, given her party’s dependence on the
Socialists for any hope of future representation in parliament and
government. Mélenchon has positioned
himself “against Sarkozy” rather than for Hollande, although in a two-horse
race there is little difference in practice.
The vast majority of supporters of both these candidates are expected to
back Hollande in the second round.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
More complex is the issue of Bayrou’s voters. Bayrou has not yet backed either candidate,
instead indicating that he will talk to both, see who makes him a better offer,
then “fulfil his duty” by throwing his weight behind one or the other. Clearly he is selling himself to the highest
bidder, hoping to offer the promise of a few more votes in exchange for some
kind of deal. It is unclear what either
candidate could offer him, though.
Hollande can probably win without having to court Bayrou, and will be
unwilling to offer government or parliamentary positions when other electoral
allies already need to be appeased.
Sarkozy might promise a government post, but this is of little worth
unless he wins (which currently looks unlikely), and Sarkozy has already
calculated that he has more interest in lurching to the right and chasing FN
voters, which would make his policies unpalatable for the centrist supporters
of Bayrou. As for the FN, le Pen has
encouraged her voters to destroy Sarkozy, presumably so that the FN can step
into the hole left by a weakened UMP and become the main party of opposition to
a future Socialist majority. Such a
scenario looks unlikely, given that FN voters tend not to do as they are told,
and in any event are much closer ideologically to Sarkozy than to Hollande. A significant proportion will abstain, and
some of the remainder will support Hollande.
What percent will transfer to Sarkozy is anyone’s guess (those pollsters
and experts who have guessed have ranged from 37% to 69%). Sarkozy will do all he can to persuade as
many of them as possible to support him, but it looks unlikely that this will
be sufficient. With Hollande having a
head start and gaining nearly all the other left-wing transfers and some of the
Bayrou and FN votes, Sarkozy will face a real uphill battle to have any hope of
turning this around.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
So what can we expect over the coming fortnight? Debategate will continue, not only to put
pressure on Hollande but also to humiliate him for being reluctant to face
Sarkozy. Sarkozy will try to woo voters
from both the centre and the far-right, and will attack Hollande hard on his
experience, his policies and the threat that a Socialist president would take
France down the same path as Greece or Portugal. Meanwhile, Hollande will focus his efforts on
reminding voters of why they don’t want another five years of Sarkozy. Sarkozy will probably see a bump in the polls
after any debates, and the gap between the candidates is likely to narrow. But reversing the gap and winning a second
term is starting to look like mission impossible for Sarkozy.<o:p></o:p></div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-81892214585753575012012-03-21T15:46:00.002-07:002012-07-05T03:49:43.752-07:00Could Toulouse turn things around for Sarkozy?<span style="background-color: white;"> Prior to the events of Monday, Nicolas Sarkozy was
on an upward streak. Although he is
still polling a distant second to François Hollande in the second round, he is
steadily eroding the gap in the first round.
The momentum is increasingly with his campaign. However, with just five weeks to go until the
first round of voting, it would take more than just momentum for Sarkozy to
nurture any real hopes of winning.</span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
Ironically, those hopes may have been reignited by
a tragedy. The murders of four Jews – three
of them children – in Toulouse has changed the whole dynamic of the
campaign. As events unfolded, it emerged
that the shooter was the same person responsible for killing three soldiers the
week before. Speculation was rife that
the murderer was associated with the far-right, France’s answer to Norway’s
Anders Breivik. A couple of candidates
even dared to point fingers directly at Marine le Pen, accusing her of stoking
racial hatred with her inflammatory comments about ritual slaughter, halal
meat, prayer on the streets and the like.
Now it has emerged that the man responsible for these horrible crimes is
a radical Islamist of Algerian descent, who has received training from
Al-Qaeda. With this information, the game
changes. Henceforth, the political
agenda is likely to swing to the right, with national security, terrorism, law
and order, and anti-Islamism back on the menu in a major way. These issues will all play to the advantage
of the right.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
In 2002, the agenda was dominated by similar
issues, coming only a few months after 9/11.
The result was the surprise qualification of far-right candidate Jean
Marie le Pen to the second round of the election, and the re-election of
Jacques Chirac. Since then, the economy
has loomed large in the public consciousness, while security issues have died
down. The poor state of the global
economy has led to the eviction of many political incumbents over the past four
years, and Sarkozy looked set to be the latest victim. Shifting the agenda away from the economy and
back onto security issues is therefore a political gift for him. However, he is aware that he needs to play
this one carefully. Trying to make
political gains out of human suffering is always a faux pas. The terrorist attacks on Spain in 2004, which
also came shortly before an election, resulted in the surprise victory of the left
after criticism of how the news was handled by the right-wing government.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
So Sarkozy’s strategy has been to tread very
cautiously. He has taken off his
candidate hat for three days, and put back on the hat of the president. He has studiously avoided doing anything that
could be construed as campaigning.
Instead, he has been solemn and dignified, the leader uniting the
country in their hour of grief, speaking out against violence and rallying his
people. It is a smart and effective
strategy. Hollande has had little choice
but to follow Sarkozy’s lead, attending funerals and similar events by Sarkozy’s
side. But whereas Sarkozy can act in his
official capacity as president, Hollande is only a candidate, and therefore is
less well placed to separate his presence at such events from his campaign. He also looks like the junior partner, with
Sarkozy enjoying the stature and gravitas that only an incumbent president can
have.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
Sarkozy’s efforts to remove himself from the fray
have been ably assisted by Marine le Pen.
Her party initially went very quiet, as rumours circulated of a
far-right fanatic that would have cast her own party in a bad light. Now that the true identity of the gunman has
been revealed, she has pulled no punches.
She has attacked all those who jumped to conclusions and pointed fingers
at the far-right, and has resumed (with vigour) her attacks on Islamic
extremism. She has also renewed her
calls to reinstate the death penalty.
Her bullish populism is unsurprising, given the unprecedented
opportunity to refocus the political agenda onto all her party’s pet
issues. She has nothing to lose and
might as well make the most of the chance to score political points. Meanwhile, Sarkozy can rise above the
populism of le Pen, safe in the knowledge that she is helping to steer the
campaign onto turf that will favour them both, without tarnishing him with the
brush of opportunism.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
So who will win and lose in the new political
order? Le Pen is likely to win, with an
increased vote share in the first round, but she is still unlikely to qualify
to the second round. Sarkozy is also
likely to win, as more of le Pen’s votes might now transfer to Sarkozy in the
second round. In times of crisis,
uncertainty and insecurity, people like candidates on the right, and they like
the devil that they know. Meanwhile,
Hollande is likely to lose out. The shift
in the agenda will not be to his benefit, and the momentum is likely to swing
further in his rival’s favour. The
centrist candidate, François Bayrou, is likely to be the biggest loser of
all. He was too quick to point the
finger at the FN, and will now be forced to eat some humble pie. His accusations came on the same day that the
murders were announced, so he suffered the double indignity of reacting too
quickly, and getting it wrong. Sarkozy’s
policy of dignified silence, interspersed with soundbites of sorrow and
national resilience, was a much better strategy.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
While the shift in agenda may not be sufficient to
change the outcome of the election, I would not rule out a comeback for
Sarkozy. The result is certainly likely
to be closer as a consequence of the events of Toulouse. For anyone who had hoped that these racially
motivated murders would force a decline in the racist undertones of the long
campaign, there appears to be plenty more disappointment in store.</div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-92028523788372008362012-03-11T13:16:00.003-07:002012-07-05T03:49:54.191-07:00Can Marine le Pen Feminise the Front National?<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Marine le Pen is the
candidate for the far-right Front National (FN) party in the presidential
elections. She follows in the footsteps
of her father, Jean-Marie le Pen, who contested every previous presidential
election for the party and succeeded in qualifying to the second round of
voting in 2002. Marine has succeeded in
providing a new image for the party – one that is younger and more modern. Of interest here is whether she has also
succeeded in feminising the party. The
traditional FN electorate comprises two men for every woman. If she wants to repeat her father’s success
from 2002, she will need to bring more women voters on board. The ideal time to do this was 8 March,
International Women’s Day, when all French candidates were invited to take a
stance on women’s issues. The positions
that she took were fascinating.<br />
<a name='more'></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
Interviewed on
mainstream television channel France 2 (<a href="http://www.frontnational.com/videos/marine-le-pen-invitee-des-4-verites-sur-france-2-2/">http://www.frontnational.com/videos/marine-le-pen-invitee-des-4-verites-sur-france-2-2/</a>),
she began by explaining why there is nothing on women’s rights in the FN
manifesto. She claimed that the laws
needed to achieve equality are already in place, but the problem is that there
is a lack of political commitment to ensuring that they are implemented. She then suggested that perhaps a woman would
be more committed to enforcing these laws.
Are we to understand, then, that she would be the feminist saviour of
France? Much research on this topic has
indicated that women may be more committed to the defence of women’s issues
than men. However, women’s bodies do not
always house feminist minds, and partisanship and ideology may be better
predictors than sex of whether a politician will defend feminist
positions. The traditionalist far-right
ideology of the FN suggests that le Pen is unlikely to be an effective advocate
of women’s rights – but that certainly didn’t stop her from trying to present
herself in a positive light to women voters.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
She defended the FN’s
support for a “parental salary”, destined to offer 80% of the minimum wage to mothers
who choose to stay at home with their children.
A key give-away for the observant feminist was that, despite the
gender-neutral term “parental salary”, she referred always to giving <i>women</i> the choice of whether or not to be
full-time mothers. For those women who
do prefer to stay at home, this should be a financially viable option, she
argued. This stance would be fine if it
were truly gender-neutral and afforded the same option to fathers, although the
gender pay gap in France would make a “salary” of below the minimum wage an
unattractive prospect for most men. Her
discourse, however, did nothing to contest the notion that childcare was a
woman’s responsibility.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
She emphasised that the
parental salary was proposed as a “choice”, not an obligation for women to
abandon the working world and stay at home.
She claimed that women who wanted to work should be able to do so, but
were currently prevented from doing so due to inadequate provision of crèches
(cue a dig at Sarkozy for failing to introduce 75% of the nursery places he had
promised in 2007). She introduced a new
policy of promoting increased nursery provision, declaring herself to be “la
présidente des crèches” in a direct appeal to women voters. In this way, she sought to distance the
long-standing policy of a maternal salary from the paternalist discourse with
which it had previously been associated.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent: 36.0pt;">
So how does le Pen
propose to finance all these nursery places?
In a swift return to the more traditional discourse of the far-right,
she attacked the state’s willingness to support group interests [which are seen
as a threat to the collective national identity], citing the 500,000 euros
awarded per year to anti-racism group SOS Racisme as an example of something
that could be cut. Once again, feminism <i>à la française</i> is presented as something
that belongs only to French white women.
However, 500,000 euros is nowhere near sufficient to cover the costs of
her childcare proposals. In the same
interview, she declared that there was a shortage of 500,000 nursery places,
and it is clear that 1 euro per child per year is not going to cut it. Where will the rest of the money come
from? Why, from reducing spending on
abortion, of course. This may have the
side-effect of increasing the number of children in need of care, but the
presenter did not query the rather dubious mathematics behind the
costings. (After all, this is the same
party that has previously claimed that “3 million unemployed French = 3 million
too many immigrants”, and le Pen has recently claimed that nearly all meat sold
in the Paris region is halal. Economic
accuracy has never been the FN’s forté.)
Le Pen was clear that she was not opposed to all abortion. France is not the US; even the far-right do
not oppose abortion with the religious fervour seen in America. Rather, she claimed that some women were
abusing the system by using abortion as a casual method of contraception, and
it was these cases that should no longer be reimbursed. As ever, she was clever in spinning the story
in a way that did not sound like an attack on women. She pointed out that doctors were refusing to
carry out abortions due to exasperation with these irresponsible women, leading
to a shortage of availability for women in distress who really needed access to
abortion. So she is not anti-abortion, she simply wants to restrict it to “deserving”
cases.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
As with the parental salary, she managed to make a
paternalist discourse on abortion sound more respectable. Without a doubt, this is partly because she
herself is a woman, but her skill should not be underestimated either. Cleverly phrased soundbites have succeeded in
dressing up quite regressive policies to make them sound almost
progressive. When it was put to her that
her policies would force women back into the home, she claimed this was absurd,
saying “not me, not I who have worked all my life...I want to give women a
choice”. She made an indirect appeal to
women voters by claiming that women only get involved when the most important
things are at stake, and that in this election, the most important things are
indeed at stake. Whether this will motivate women voters to support her is
unclear, but recent data gathered by the Laboratoire de l’Egalité suggests that
at least some women see le Pen as a good advocate of women’s rights.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
What can we learn from all this? However skilful le Pen might be in presenting
her policies in a positive light, more careful analysis indicates that the FN
is not in a strong position to defend women’s rights. The assumption that a woman candidate will be
the best defender of women’s interests is erroneous. However, the ability of a woman candidate to
appeal to the female electoral market is an interesting prospect, especially
for a party such as the FN that has traditionally performed poorly in this
area. Marine le Pen might not be the
ideal ambassador for women – but she is proving to be a real asset for her
party.</div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-35946758677006571972012-03-02T15:33:00.000-08:002012-07-05T03:50:18.878-07:00François the Feminist? Or Hollande the Hypocrite?<span style="background-color: white;"> Six days before International Women’s Day (which
the French take seriously), François Hollande assembled his party’s feminists
at his campaign headquarters and rolled out his proposals for gender
equality. At first glance, they look
pretty impressive. He’s offering the
following:</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
</div>
<ul>
<li>A parity government</li>
<li>The reintroduction of a Women’s Rights Ministry</li>
<li>The removal of all state funding for parties who
do not respect the parity law (by fielding an equal number of men and women
candidates for parliamentary elections)</li>
<li>Big businesses will have one year to sort out the
gender pay gap, or else lose national insurance credits</li>
<li>There should be an abortion clinic in every
hospital, fully funded by the state</li>
<li>There should be more shelters for victims of
domestic violence</li>
<li>Children should be taught gender equality in schools</li>
<li>Secularism (laïcité) is a safeguard of gender
equality<a name='more'></a></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
Sounds good – but when you look a bit closer,
there’s not actually that much innovation here, and it is clearly driven by
electoral imperatives. There are some
smart political moves in these measures.
Some of them may sound familiar – promises made (but not kept) by
rivals; traditional Socialist strengths; or a contrast with less favourable
policies by others. Let’s start with a
parity government. Sarkozy promised
this, with some fanfare, in 2007. He has
certainly placed more women in his government than any predecessor, several of
whom have been in high profile posts.
But he never achieved his promise of a parity government, and the
presence of women has declined in both quantity and quality of positions with
every reshuffle. With a large pool of
prominent women in the PS – including party leader Martine Aubry, and former
presidential candidate Ségolène Royal – Hollande is better placed to keep this
promise.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
The reintroduction of a Women’s Rights Ministry is
a reminder to voters that there used to be one, introduced by the Socialists,
which has since disappeared under the UMP government.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
The proposal for parity in parliamentary elections
is a good move. It’s not as good as it
sounds, because it still only refers to the number of candidates selected, and
does not address the tendency across all parties to place women in less
winnable seats. But it would certainly
help to address the current situation, whereby parties lose only a small
portion of their state funding if they do not fulfil the legal requirement to
field women candidates in half their seats, which means that several parties
(including the UMP) don’t respect the law.
Removing all funding for parties unless they comply would force them to
comply – even the UMP could not afford to get round that one. The Socialists have already managed to reach
the target, facilitated by the fact that they have been in opposition for two
terms. Hence in most seats they do not have a sitting male incumbent and can therefore
offer these seats to women candidates.
By contrast, the UMP has a much weaker track record on gender parity,
and has a much bigger problem with male incumbents who would not wish to
surrender their seats for a woman candidate.
So a tightening of the law is a clever manoeuvre for François
Hollande. It would place the UMP in a
difficult position whereby they would either have to force some of their male
MPs to stand down (which would doubtless lead to internal dissent and possible
mutiny) or would be bankrupted. Meanwhile,
the Socialists have reminded the public that they are the frontrunners on this
issue. And Sarkozy will not be able to
oppose Hollande’s suggestion without looking sexist. All in all, a smart political tactic and
potentially a big step towards making gender parity more effective.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
The threat towards big businesses who do not
respect a gender pay gap is really a reminder to voters that Sarkozy is cozy
with big businesses and Hollande is not afraid to stand up to them in the name
of equality. So this is a shout out to
the left of his party. The gender pay
legislation is already in place, introduced by the current right-wing
government, so all that Hollande is proposing here is to step up penalties for
non-implementation.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
The support for abortion clinics is a veiled
attack on Marine le Pen, who has indicated that she would like to see a
reduction in state funding for abortion.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
Finally, if support for victims of domestic
violence sounds familiar, it is because this is what Ségolène Royal promised to
do as her first act in office, back in 2007.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
So several things old, something new, plenty
borrowed, and multiple attacks on the Blues.
It will be interesting to see if the other candidates attempt to do
something similar over the coming days, as the annual furore surrounding Women’s
Day gathers momentum. After a dip in the
polls earlier this week that saw Hollande’s lead over Sarkozy tumble to one
point in the first round, Hollande is today back up to a comfortable 3.5 point
lead. It will be interesting to see
whether this raft of proposals reels in any women voters.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
He didn’t impress all the women though. In fact, while his advisors may have
presented him with a feminist discourse and set of policies, he let slip a
decidedly <i>un</i>-feminist gaffe. “It would be good in principle to have as
many men as women in the government”, he announced, before adding, “which is
not to say that they will have the same responsibilities”. Oops.
Just like that, the veil of feminism fell off. It didn’t go unnoticed, either. While the Socialist Sisterhood tweeted
enthusiastically about the policies listed above, Marie-Jo Zimmerman pounced on
this gaffe. “It’s scandalous to say such
things!” she told AFP. “That means that
women are just the under-under-secretaries and won’t be ministers or Secretaries
of State. I can’t understand how someone
could come out with such things in 2012. If Yvette Roudy [prominent feminist Socialist
and the first Women’s Minister] reads that she’ll scream, and with good reason.” Zimmerman is well placed to make such a
comment. A member of parliament for the
UMP, she is the president of the Parliamentary Delegation for Women’s Rights,
and the former director of the Parity Observatory, the government’s official
watchdog for gender parity. So François
the “Feminist” found himself getting shot down – by the Right.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
A sharp reminder that you can offer many
women-friendly policies in a speech surrounded by feminists, declare yourself a
feminist, go through all the motions, and still manage to balls it up. I hope he has learned his lesson. Policies designed primarily to hurt his
rivals and score him points are all well and good, but if anyone is to believe
that these promises are underpinned by anything more than the desire to win the
election, he will need to start showing some sincerity. Perhaps he could start by reshuffling his
(male-dominated) campaign team?</div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-53117997383279888532012-02-26T07:11:00.004-08:002012-07-05T03:53:12.018-07:00Bayrou’s electoral reforms don’t add up<span style="background-color: white;"> François Bayrou is offering a package of electoral
reforms that he proposes to submit to the French electorate for approval in the
form of a referendum. The package
contains a number of worthy goals designed to modernise and democratise French
politics. The problem is that the goals
are not all compatible with each other.
In sum, he forgot to join the dots.</span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpLast">
Among his promises are the following:</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpLast">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">to replace the current system (all deputies
elected in single member districts) with one where ¾ of deputies are elected in
single-member districts and the remaining quarter are elected through a
proportional top-up</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">to reduce the number of deputies from 577 to 400</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">to eliminate the practice of multiple
office-holding (cumul des mandats) for deputies, and impose strict limitations
on the practice for senators.</span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">This would
prevent the current widespread practice of national politicians also holding
local office of import, such as mayors, presidents of local and regional councils,
etc.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">To ensure the effective implementation of the
gender parity law</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
It is this final promise that is the least
credible. It comes straight after
several promises to take power away from existing male incumbents. The number of seats will be reduced by nearly
25%, resulting in much greater competition for seats, and a surplus of incumbents
ready to snap up any seats that might otherwise have been vacated for a new
arrival to politics. The opportunities
for deputies to combine national and local offices will be removed, which may
actually incentivise some deputies to renounce their parliamentary seats in
favour of their local office, but which would further increase the stakes for
those who choose to stay in parliament.
The electoral reform would only exacerbate these problems and place even
greater pressure on the remaining seats in single-member districts. Previous research by myself and others has
highlighted that the greater the emphasis on incumbents, and the greater the
competition for seats, the harder it is to elect more women. However well-intentioned these reforms might
be, the combination of other reforms decreases rather than enhances the
prospects of achieving parity. </div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
With Bayrou currently obtaining 11%-13% in the
polls, it is unlikely that any of this will be anything more than a
hypothesis. But it does underline the
disconnect between rhetoric on parity and a true understanding of the
conditions actually required to ensure its success. While a switch to PR might be helpful, and an
elimination of the cumul des mandats would certainly help in the long-term (by
freeing up more opportunities in local springboard positions for women), it
simply is not realistic to partner these measures with a reduction in the
number of deputies. Indeed, to reduce
pressure from outgoing male incumbents, an <i>increase</i>
rather than a <i>decrease</i> in the number
of seats is often advocated as a means of boosting women’s presence. Going the other way will increase the
pressures of what is already an exhausting and burdernsome job, rendering it
less attractive to women with competing family demands; will reduce the number
of vacancies open to women; and will reduce the opportunity for constituency
links, thus transforming the nature of French politics away from localised political
representation. If Bayrou’s measures do
get put forward, either through his own success or through co-option by his
rivals, they had better think this one through a bit more carefully.</div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-3300179297032667582012-02-26T03:49:00.003-08:002012-07-05T03:53:36.425-07:00Disproportionate support for proportional representation?<span style="background-color: white;"> All four major candidates in the French
presidential elections have declared their support for some form of
proportional representation in future parliamentary elections. This is nothing short of remarkable.</span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
France’s current electoral system uses single-member
districts, elected over two rounds. In
the first round, voters can cast their vote any way they please. Candidates need to meet a threshold to
qualify for the second round. The
threshold is set at 12.5% of registered voters; when you bear in mind that
turnout is well below 100%, this threshold is higher than it sounds, and more
often than not only two candidates qualify to the second round, which then
becomes a face-off between a left-wing and a right-wing candidate. Occasionally two candidates from the left or
from the right meet the threshold; usually the one with the lower score will
stand down in order to concentrate the vote behind the better placed candidate
from their side. This doesn’t always
happen though, especially when one of the three qualifiers is from the
far-right Front National (FN), in which case there is a “triangulaire”, or
three-horse race. In the second round,
the rules of simple plurality apply. If
there are two candidates, the winner will – by definition – win an absolute
majority of the vote in the second round, whereas a plurality will suffice when
there are three or more candidates.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
This electoral system has numerous
consequences. It tends to crowd out
smaller parties, including the Front National who have won a total of only two
seats in the past five elections, despite a steady vote share of 10-20%. Another party to suffer from this problem is
François Bayrou’s party, Mouvement Démocrat or MoDem. Bayrou came third in the 2007 presidential
elections with 18% of the vote, but his party was annihilated in the
parliamentary elections barely two months later, obtaining only three seats out
of 577. It is understandable, then, why
both François Bayrou and Marine le Pen (FN) are calling for proportional
representation. Their share of
parliamentary seats, their status and their power would undoubtedly increase as
a result of a more proportional seat allocation.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
What is less clear is why François Hollande and
Nicolas Sarkozy are also supporting PR.
The Socialists are pre-eminent but not omnipotent amongst left-wing
parties, with numerous smaller parties eating away at the left-wing vote
share. To ensure a unified left-wing
vote, parties on the left have often cut electoral deals, whereby smaller
parties will be granted some seats that are not contested by the other
left-wing parties, in exchange for standing down and supporting a different
left-wing candidate in the remainder of seats.
This has led to some concentration of the left-wing vote from the first
round, although only in constituencies where the left has a credible chance of
being elected. In right-wing dominated
seats, there is no logic to congregating behind a single candidate, especially
as each party obtains part of its state funding for every vote cast for that
party. So the smaller parties may lose
out on funding if they stand down too frequently in support of a Socialist
candidate. In addition, the Socialists,
as the dominant partner in bilateral negotiations with smaller left-wing
parties, have been able to reserve more seats for themselves than their vote
share would dictate. Thus, the current
electoral system promotes co-operation between left-wing parties that permits
the parliamentary presence of parties such as the Greens, the Radical Left
Party (le Parti radical de gauche), the Communist Party and a few others. But the Socialists remain the main party of
the left, and their pre-eminent status might be threatened by the introduction
of PR. If Hollande is making a gesture
towards smaller left-wing parties and centrist voters, all of whom he hopes to
rally around him in the second round, he needs to tread carefully. The likely gains that such a promise will
bring him seem to be outnumbered by the potential threat to his party if PR is
introduced. At the same time, the French
left have rarely achieved their electoral potential in France, which has earned
the description: “France thinks to the
left but votes to the right” (la France à gauche qui vote à droite). Perhaps Hollande is hoping that PR will help
to reverse this trend.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
As for Sarkozy, the appeal of PR is even less
clear. It is obvious that the noises he
has made in this direction were aimed squarely at the FN electorate, whom he is
trying to woo away from Marine le Pen and towards himself. If the FN want PR, and Hollande is offering
it, Sarkozy may feel he needs to make a counter-offer in order to win over FN
voters in the second round, without whom he will certainly lose. However, PR is such an unrealistic prospect
for his party (the UMP) that his overtures on this topic have already been
muted. The UMP loathe PR with a
passion. It is seen as the electoral
system that brought down the Fourth Republic.
From 1944 to 1958, France’s parliament was elected with PR, resulting in
an atomised party system and dysfunctional coalition governments that kept
disbanding within a few months of their formation. The experience was one that the right are
eager not to repeat. In 1958, Charles de
Gaulle – whose legacy is still adhered to by many on the right – founded the
Fifth Republic, with the new institutional design including the current
two-round electoral system. The
combination of parliamentary majorities, stable governments and a more powerful
presidency has been credited with the relative stability and long duration of
the Fifth Republic. Only once since this
time has anyone dared tinker with the electoral system. In 1986, after five unpopular years at the
helm, François Mitterrand saw that his party (the Socialists) were certain to
lose the forthcoming parliamentary elections.
He therefore changed the electoral system to one of partial PR, which
mitigated his party’s losses even though it was not sufficient to stop them
from losing. The victorious right-wing
majority reversed the electoral system to the two-round format as one of their
first acts of office. The PR experiment
was almost universally viewed as negative.
Its partisan motivations did not reflect well on the Socialists, and
later attempts to introduce a gender parity law were contingent on an
understanding that they were not a veiled attempt to reintroduce more profound electoral
reform. The FN, who have been
marginalised from power at every other election, achieved their mainstream
break-through in the 1986 election, winning 35 seats. This victory propelled them from a minor to a
major player in French politics, a status they have retained ever since despite
their subsequent quasi-absence from parliamentary representation. Even women’s representation, which is
normally positively associated with PR, did not increase in 1986. Hence, no tears were shed when the electoral
system was returned to the two-round system, and electoral reform has been off
the table ever since.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
For all these reasons, the sudden support for PR
from all four major candidates comes as something of a surprise. It reveals the extent to which the two main
candidates are feeling insecure and are seeking to draw in voters from the
other parties. Hollande needs to unite a
divided left that stretches out from the very far left to the centre, as well
as trying to mobilise Bayrou’s supporters in the second round. Sarkozy also needs to win over Bayrou’s
supporters, as well as bringing the far-right on board. He is more likely to achieve the latter
through his discourses on immigration, but PR offers one means of appealing to
moderate and far-right voters in the same breath. Unfortunately for Sarkozy, this tactic is
doomed to failure because his own party simply will not entertain the notion of
electoral form. It is not certain that
Hollande’s party will go for it either, as a rational analysis suggests that
they have more to lose than to gain from such a measure, and it is not clear
that the voters are hungry for electoral reform. Hence, despite all the noise about PR in
these elections, I would not be surprised to see the two-round system endure
beyond the next election.</div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-23224320971325367802012-02-23T04:43:00.002-08:002012-07-05T03:57:25.304-07:00Which candidate is best for gender equality?<span style="background-color: white;"> The “Equality Laboratory” (</span><i style="background-color: white;">Laboratoire de l’Egalité)</i><span style="background-color: white;"> commissioned a
poll of a representative sample of 1186 members of the French public. The aim was to gauge their opinions concerning
the strength of the different French presidential candidates on issues of
gender equality. The results are
fascinating, as they indicate a slight disconnect between public perceptions
and what the candidates are actually promising.</span><br />
<a name='more'></a>
Of particular interest is how highly Marine le Pen scores on a number of
equality criteria, presumably because she is a woman. This is despite the fact that her far-right
party, the Front National, has a very regressive track record on almost all
aspects of gender equality. Christine
Boutin (former minister, on the Christian right) also fared surprisingly
well. Although she withdrew as a
candidate after the poll was commissioned due to her negligible performance in
the polls, she received 5% of votes as the candidate most likely to implement equality. This is all the more astonishing given that
she distinguished herself as the only deputy (MP) of either sex or any
political party to vote against France’s parity law. This law requires French parties to select
equal numbers of men and women candidates to French elections, and its real and
symbolic effects have been widely felt.
The results of this survey indicate the symbolic impact of having a
woman candidate, and the corresponding association of women as descriptive
representatives with substantive issues of gender equality. Women are assumed to be advocates of equality
even when their track records indicate the contrary.<br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span lang="EN-GB"> Despite the exaggerated
associations between women candidates and gender equality, François Hollande
was considered the best candidate for gender equality across all the
categories. The Socialist candidate has
been forthcoming in promoting women-friendly policies in this election, perhaps
trying to tap into an electorate that is hard to win over. (In 2007, Sarkozy’s victory was largely thanks
to the votes of older women.) Hollande
announced in a speech on 22 February that he would reinstate the Women’s Rights
ministry in order to promote equality.
He has also reiterated his commitment to equality issues, and promised
to put pressure on businesses to conform to equal pay legislation within a
year.</span></div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-16476469334844803912012-02-22T14:20:00.001-08:002012-07-05T03:57:44.901-07:00Women, maids, prostitutes – they all look the same to DSK<span style="background-color: white;"> Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) is back in the
headlines (and, until his release earlier today, back in police custody) for
his inability to keep it in his trousers.
The latest scandal involves his attendance at orgies where he had sex
with a number of prostitutes. The sex
parties were paid for on the business accounts of friends of his, as part of
the “Carlton affair” that involves businessmen, police officers and a few high
profile personalities in a prostitution ring.</span><br />
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Paying for sex with a prostitute is not illegal in France, but
conspiring to supply prostitutes is a criminal offence, and it is also illegal
for public officials to receive gifts (including sexual services). DSK is understood to have attended a number
of sex parties in 2010 and 2011, the last of these being in Washington DC
shortly before he was arrested in May 2011 on charges of attempted rape. Although the charges were subsequently
dropped, they prompted DSK’s resignation as head of the IMF, and destroyed his
hopes of contesting the forthcoming French presidential elections. With hindsight, this may have been a blessing
in disguise for the Socialist Party.
François Hollande had tailed DSK in the opinion polls but went on to win
the nomination once his rival was forced out of the race, and he now looks
poised to win the presidency back for the Socialists. He might not be the most exciting of candidates,
but at least he does not have any skeletons (or naked women) in his
cupboard. As DSK’s reputation is further
tarnished, Socialist officials will be grateful that the latest revelations are
not set to take the party down with the man who was nearly their candidate.<br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
DSK’s strategy for dealing with the Carlton
allegations (named after the hotel in Lille that served as the epicentre for
the alleged prostitution ring) is consistent with the way that he handled
previous scandals. He did not deny
having had sexual relations with Nafissatou Diallo (the New York chambermaid
who accused DSK of attempted rape), but merely insisted that the relations were
consensual. A similar defence was
offered against charges of attempted rape brought about by French writer,
Tristane Banon. He is now claiming that
he was not aware that the women he slept with at these parties were
prostitutes; his lawyer stated, “I challenge you to distinguish a naked
prostitute from any other naked woman” (<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17110618">http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17110618</a>). If we are to believe DSK’s version of events,
then he must be (or believe himself to be) a real woman magnet. Naked women throw themselves at him at
parties and have sex with him just because he is so attractive. A maid cleaning his room decides to abandon
her work and perform fellatio on him because the sight of him naked gets her so
randy. A young woman journalist
interviewing him finds herself seduced by his magnetic charm. Maybe there are a lot of young women out
there who find themselves hastily discarding their knickers at the sight of an
overweight man in his sixties. He claims
never to have resorted to violent coercion, nor to have known that women were
being paid to have sex with him.
However, at a time where even Sarkozy is owning up to mistakes and
eating a big chunk of humble pie, the defensive approach of DSK appears to be
rather out of synch with the current preference for a little humility. Even if he is as charming with the ladies as
he thinks he is, women voters (and men too, for that matter) have deserted him
in droves. The Socialists must surely be
counting their blessings that DSK’s star fell early enough to ensure that he
never became their candidate.</div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-11271453182997573662012-02-07T05:56:00.001-08:002012-07-05T03:58:00.575-07:00From four-horse race back to two-horse?<span style="background-color: white;">In January, four candidates were serious contenders
in the first round of the French presidential election. The long-term front-runner, François Hollande
(PS – Socialist party), looked sure to qualify to the second round. His likely opponent was Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP –
centre-right party), the incumbent president.
Chasing at Sarkozy’s heels for second-round qualification were Marine le
Pen (FN, far-right National Front party) and François Bayrou (MoDem, the
centrist Democratic Movement party). How
did these extra candidates rise so far in the polls, and do they remain a
credible threat to Sarkozy?</span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">The second round of the French presidential
election is traditionally a stand-off between the main candidate of the right
and of the left. However, there have
been numerous exceptions to this rule.
On occasion there has been more than one serious candidate on the right –
for example, Jacques Chirac was challenged by Edouard Balladur, then prime
minister, in 1995. In addition, the 2002
election provided a political “earthquake” after the Socialist candidate,
Lionel Jospin, fell victim to a divided left-wing vote and got knocked out in
the first round, with the FN candidate Jean-Marie le Pen qualifying to the
second round (where he was beaten most decisively by Jacques Chirac). In 2007, Le Pen’s vote diminished as voters
learned the lessons of 2002, while François Bayrou put in a strong showing and
obtained a respectable 18% of the vote, placing him third. Hypothetical second-round polls, conducted
prior to the first round, indicated that Bayrou had a better chance of beating
Sarkozy than the Socialist candidate (Ségolène Royal), causing some voters to
shift towards Bayrou in an attempt to block Sarkozy. Nonetheless, Royal qualified comfortably to
the second round, and Bayrou soon disappeared into semi-obscurity, only
re-emerging as the 2012 election drew close.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">In 2012, Jean-Marie le Pen has been succeeded
by his daughter, Marine. More than forty
years younger than her father, she offers a rejuvenated and feminised image to
a party whose electorate traditionally comprises twice as many male as female
voters. Women are stereotypically viewed
as being less right-wing and more moderate than men, and the far-right is
particularly male-dominated. Le Pen has
profited from her more moderate image and her considerable political skills to
breathe new life into the FN. However,
these efforts have been tarnished in the past month by damaging stories of her
association with Austrian neo-nazis.
Doubts are now being raised over whether she will succeed in obtaining
the 500 signatures of locally elected officials that are required for her to be
an official candidate. Speculative polls
that omit her from the ballot indicate that her absence would benefit Sarkozy,
which might further persuade UMP officials to refuse to offer their signature
to her campaign. Although it would be
surprising if she did not ultimately succeed in getting onto the ballot, she
does not appear to pose an imminent threat to Sarkozy’s prospects of qualifying
to the second round.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Indeed, Sarkozy has enjoyed a slight
resurgence as his campaign steps up a few gears. He has staked his credibility on his role as
a big player on the international scene, especially in partnership with
Germany. The humiliation of France’s
downgrading from AAA to AA+ has certainly hurt Sarkozy, but he is not defeated
yet. He is currently basking in an
endorsement from Angela Merkel, and from a campaign blitz where he managed to
broadcast on nine television channels simultaneously. A recent rise in VAT might be considered an
audacious move – who would dare raise a tax three months before an election? –
but the rise was lower than originally forecast, and is consistent with Sarkozy’s
efforts to be seen as someone who will take tough decisions in order to protect
the economy. Floating voters are
becoming more settled in their vote choice, and the threat of a humiliating
exit after the first round now looks increasingly remote. At the same time, while Sarkozy may be
pulling ahead of Le Pen and Bayrou, he has done little to close the large gap
that remains between him and Hollande.
The Socialist candidate continues to enjoy a substantial lead in the
polls for both the first and second rounds.
If a week is a long time in politics, the three months that remain
before the final ballot are an eternity.
The race is not won yet. But
Hollande’s lead, which stretches to nearly twenty points in the second round,
is so great that Sarkozy will need a small miracle to turn this election
around. The growing strength of his
campaign has improved his position in the first round against Bayrou and le
Pen. But success in the second round
will depend either on a swift and spectacular improvement in the economy –
which would defy all current forecasts – or another scandal on a scale similar
to the one which eliminated the original front-runner, Dominique Strauss-Kahn,
last May.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">France has a respectable history of electing
the underdog rather than the front-runner, and I have previously voiced the
opinion that Sarkozy will use his international profile (and Hollande’s woeful
lack thereof) to turn the election around.
I am now doubting this assessment.
Traditional electoral forecasting models, based on economic voting, are
less reliable in France than elsewhere, but on this occasion it appears that it
may well be the economy, stupid. Short
of an economic miracle, it now looks increasingly likely that Hollande and Sarkozy
will qualify to the second round, with the former emerging victorious. That said, I have faith in the notoriously
fickle French electorate to keep this election interesting. If the history of French politics has taught us
anything, it is that there is no such thing as a foregone conclusion.</span></div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-90593263534252097422012-01-28T15:07:00.000-08:002012-07-05T03:58:11.351-07:00Hollande’s three measures to help women in French politics<span style="background-color: white;">On Thursday 26 January, François Hollande unveiled
his 60 manifesto pledges for the French presidency. Of particular interest to those concerned
with women’s representation is pledge #48.
In a single pledge, he makes no fewer than three promises which have
direct significance for women’s representation.
He offers to strengthen the ‘parity’ law (a somewhat ineffective law
obliging parties to field 50% women candidates), to introduce a proportional
element to parliamentary elections, and to clamp down on multiple
office-holding. All of these promises
are potentially beneficial for women.</span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
He promises to reinforce the ‘parity’ law by
increasing the financial penalties for non-compliance. This is encouraging, although
insufficient. In its current formulation,
the law does not work very well, for two reasons. First, the penalties for non-implementation
are more constraining for smaller parties without the financial means to suffer
the penalties, while the better resourced parties with the most seats in
parliament are able to offset any losses incurred by fielding too many
men. Increasing the penalties would
certainly help to address this problem, although only if the increase is
sufficiently big to deter even the largest parties from paying the financial
penalty rather than selecting more women.
The second reason why the law does not work well is that the law applies
only to the proportion of candidates, without reference to where they are
placed. My own research has demonstrated
that parties disproportionately place women in more difficult seats. This new measure would do nothing to redress
this problem. Even if a party fulfils
its obligation to place women in 50% of its seats, the proportion of women
actually elected risks being much lower if the majority of women candidates
stand in constituencies where they are certain to lose. Thus, Hollande’s promise to strengthen parity
is to be greeted with cautious approval, as a necessary but insufficient step
towards making parity effective.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
The other two promises do not mention women’s
representation explicitly, but are still consequential for women. Hollande states that he will force a vote on
the divisive issue of the “<i>cumul des mandats</i>”.
This refers to the French practice of holding multiple elected offices
at the same time – for example, combining a seat in parliament with being mayor
of a local town, a regional councillor and/or president of the county
(<i>département</i>). This practice is
disapproved of in some quarters, as it reduces the focus that politicians can
place on any one role, leads to chronic absenteeism, and restricts
opportunities for new entrants to politics – notably women. However, the practice is not universally
unpopular, even amongst voters, who see an advantage in the dual role of deep
immersion in local issues and representation of those issues at the national
level. The majority of French MPs hold
at least one local office alongside their parliamentary seat, and many do so
unapologetically, arguing that this practice benefits their constituency and
makes them better able to defend their constituents’ interests. Hence, despite several previous attempts at
reform, the <i>cumul</i> continues, and Hollande will have his work cut out if he
tries to get deputies to vote against their own entrenched interests. If he does succeed, many positions will be
vacated, reducing the opportunity for local fiefdoms and opening up new
channels for women trying to break into politics.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
Finally, Hollande promises to introduce an element
of proportional representation into parliamentary elections. Perhaps enough water has now passed under the
bridge for this to be a credible manifesto pledge once more. In 1986, François Mitterrand manipulated the
electoral system, replacing France’s majoritarian system (single member
districts, with elections held over two rounds) with proportional
representation. This was a cynical act
designed to mitigate the extent of the Socialist Party’s forthcoming electoral
defeat. The move did indeed offset his
party’s losses, but not sufficiently to prevent the Right from coming back into
power, at which point they swiftly restored the majoritarian electoral
system. Further attempts at electoral
reform have therefore been greeted with suspicion and fears of manipulation and
gerrymandering. This is unfortunate from
women’s perspective, as a number of global studies have indicated that women
tend to be elected in higher numbers under a proportional representation (PR) electoral
system. PR for parliamentary elections would
make the parity law easier to implement, as lists that did not comply with the
law could be rejected, and it would be easy to require that women be placed in
winnable positions on the list. It would
also be more conspicuous to voters if parties were not respecting parity. It sounds as though Hollande might be
advocating partial reform, perhaps in the form of a mixed member system (where
some seats are contested in single-member districts using first-past-the-post,
with the remaining seats being used to offset the disproportionalities created
by a majoritarian system). Such a move would have a limited, but likely
beneficial, impact on the number of women in parliament.</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
Given the ongoing economic crisis in France, it is
unclear how much political capital Hollande would wish to invest in electoral
reform if he were to win the election.
At the same time, such measures might help to address French
disillusionment with political institutions, and they would be amongst the
cheapest of Hollande’s promises to implement.
At a time when the focus of politicians, voters and the media rests
squarely on the economy, reforms that might otherwise have appeared radical
might slip by relatively unnoticed. They
might also be considered more palatable in a climate where politicians are struggling
to offer something positive to voters. The
real test now will be to see whether Sarkozy responds in kind, or whether these
promises are allowed to disappear into the small print.</div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-16708977144281573702012-01-14T06:15:00.000-08:002012-07-05T03:58:25.287-07:00End of triple-A, end of Sarkozy?<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">On 13 January, France lost its triple-A
rating from Standard and Poor's, who downgraded France to AA+. This is
bad news for the French economy and a political disaster for Sarkozy,
especially as it comes just a few months away from the presidential elections
this spring. It damages Sarkozy’s credibility, benefits his rivals and
focuses attention on his weaknesses and away from his strengths.</span><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">For months he has been staking his
credibility on the preservation of France's triple A status. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">During the Socialist party primaries to designate the left-wing
presidential candidate, Sarkozy contrasted France’s triple-A status with the
economic disasters playing out in Greece, Italy and Spain. He claimed that it was thanks to his
government that France enjoyed a triple-A, whereas a Socialist government would
have led France to a crisis comparable to the one unfolding in Southern
Europe. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">As the economic situation darkened in
France, Sarkozy was forced to start downplaying such comments and switch to a
tone of reassurance, although a French newspaper (le Canard Enchainé) quoted
him as stating privately that “if we lose the triple-A, I’m dead”. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Now the triple A has been lost at a particularly delicate time. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Sarkozy is currently switching into campaign mode and this is the worst
possible way to launch his presidential campaign.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">There are four main negative
repercussions of this outcome for Sarkozy.
The first is the economic effects.
Losing the triple-A status will make France a less desirable destination
for creditors and investors, and will make loans harder and more expensive for
France to obtain. This is a prominent
and damning indictment of the state of the French economy more generally. There
is extensive research on France and other countries such as the US which
suggests that the state of the economy is one of the main drivers of vote
choice. When the economy is bad, people
tend to vote against the government. So
we can expect a poor economy to hurt Sarkozy’s prospects of re-election.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The second problem for Sarkozy is that
the economic problems hurt the impression of his leadership more
generally. Even though he cannot be held
personally accountable for the unfortunate state of the global economy, the
crisis has taken place since he assumed the presidency in 2007 and he will
ultimately be held accountable for the fact that France is faring less well
than some of her European neighbours in resolving the crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">This links to the third problem, which
is that Germany has not suffered a downgrade in its credit rating. Sarkozy has spent much of the past few months
flaunting himself as a world leader, standing shoulder to shoulder with Angela
Merkel as the two parents of the EuroZone, sorting out their wayward family
members in Greece and Italy. This posturing
increased Sarkozy’s stature on the world stage and improved his domestic
opinion poll ratings. Now Merkel stands
rather taller than Sarkozy, whose status will be diminished by this very public
confirmation that the French economy is weaker than that of Germany.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Finally, and as a consequence of the
above, the opinion polls have confirmed the bad news for Sarkozy. François Hollande, the Socialist candidate, could
be perceived as something of a risk due to his lack of executive
experience. Sarkozy’s leading role in
the Eurozone made him appear the better placed candidate to resolve the
economic crisis. This new setback will
damage confidence in Sarkozy and make voters more willing to take a chance on
Hollande. Marine Le Pen, the candidate
for the far-right National Front party, has also profited from the crisis. Disillusioned voters have flocked to her as
she promises to withdraw France from the Eurozone. She is now once again threatening to qualify
to the second round of the presidential elections at Sarkozy’s expense. If she did, she would follow in her father’s
footsteps in 2002 when he faced Jacques Chirac in the second round at the
expense of the Socialist candidate. Just
as Chirac won with a landslide on that occasion, so Hollande would be expected
to beat Le Pen if a similar scenario emerged in 2012, as the majority of French
voters still reject the politics of the far right.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">So is it all over for Sarkozy? Let us not overstate the crisis. This is bad news, without a doubt. But Sarkozy is nothing if not a fighter, and
three months is a long time in politics.
This election is far from over yet.
He will need to regain the trust and confidence of voters and investors,
and demonstrate that he is the best placed to lead France out of the
crisis. It will be a long uphill battle,
but his experience and determination might yet see him emerge victorious.<span style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8646567211587538461.post-56359978857955400902012-01-14T05:04:00.000-08:002012-01-14T06:01:43.215-08:00<br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst">
Welcome to the blog of Dr. Rainbow Murray, political scientist and senior lecturer at Queen Mary, University of London. I'll be blogging on the French presidential and parliamentary elections, on gender and politics, on British politics, and on any other politics stories that take my fancy. Hope you enjoy the ride.</div>Rainbow Murrayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07736810703819922826noreply@blogger.com0